Regional Climate Impacts

Through our comprehensive monitoring and watershed management programs, ERCA and other Conservation Authorities recognize the growing impacts of climate change on a daily basis. These include more frequent flooding, stressed biodiversity, and other challenges.

Warmer, Wetter, Wilder:
Three Primary Impacts

Warmer

Annual mean temperatures are increasing across all seasons. By 2050, we could see upwards of 60 days a year above 30°C, leading to extended heat warnings during the summer. There will also be more frost-free days and fewer freeze/thaw cycles. Warmer temperatures will mean disappearing ice on Lake Erie in the winter and droughts in the summer.

Wetter

Total annual precipitation will increase but not necessarily in all seasons. In the winter and spring, rain is expected to fall faster and shorter storms will have an increasingly high intensity. In other words, heavy rain is likely to get heavier. And return periods of heavy storms will shorten, meaning increased frequency.

Wilder

While climate change may not increase the overall number of storms, there will be a rise in the number of intense storms. Extreme weather is costly. Storm cleanup costs, insurance rates, and business disruption are expected to increase with the wilder weather.

Agriculture

Climate change will bring both opportunities and challenges for farmers in the Essex Region. Longer growing seasons will likely improve crop yields. However, severe weather, summer droughts, new crop pests, and spring flooding will present significant challenges for all farmers.

Forests and Ecosystems

Human Health

Prolonged extreme heat can impact air quality, water quality and facilitate the spread of foodborne illnesses and vector-borne diseases, like Lyme disease. Along with the physical impacts and safety concerns around increased flooding and high temperatures, the mental health effects of a changing climate are becoming increasingly apparent.

Infrastructure & Stormwater Management

From roads to bridges to sewers to power lines, extreme weather can overwhelm and damage critical infrastructure. Warmer temperatures will increase energy demands during the summer months and more intense precipitation events could cause an increase in basement flooding and sewage overflows.

Natural Hazards & Lake Levels

Over 80% of our shoreline is developed and there are thousands of flood-vulnerable structures located in the flood plains. Most floodplain mapping in Ontario is out of date (on average 30 years) or is not available. With a changing climate, ERCA can no longer rely on decades-old data and assumptions about rainfall and storm surge.Water levels in the Great Lakes are mainly driven by precipitation, runoff, and evaporation. Modeling and future predictions are uncertain, however, evidence indicates increasing variability in lake level fluctuations. Prolonged periods of extreme high or low lake levels can impact shorelines, the shipping industry, coastal wetlands, and tourism and recreation. In the future, less ice cover and fluctuating water levels may lead to increased erosion and an increased risk of lake and riverine flooding.

Water Quality

Our region’s watersheds score an average of D- in ERCA’s annual watershed report cards. Increasing precipitation and stronger storms will amplify the risk of erosion and sewage overflows. Warmer water temperatures and higher nutrient loading from additional runoff will contribute to more harmful algal blooms in the western basin of Lake Erie.

Warmer, Wetter, Wilder:Three Primary Impacts